IJS KOLOKVIJ, sreda, 11. november 2009, prof. dr. Stefan Thurner

[Andreja Berglez]

Vabim vas na 4. predavanje iz sklopa "Kolokviji na IJS" v letu 2009/10, ki
bo v sredo, 11. novembra 2009, ob 13. uri v Veliki predavalnici Instituta
>Jožef Stefan< na Jamovi cesti 39 v Ljubljani. Napovednik predavanja najdete
tudi na naslovu http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev, posnetke
preteklih predavanj pa na http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



Prof. Dr. Stefan Thurner

Complex Systems Research Group, Medical University of Vienna, Wahringer
Gurtel 18-20, A 1090 Vienna, Austria in

Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

 

Anatomija finančne krize

 

Glavnina sedanje finančne krize izvira iz vsakodnevne prakse finančnih
institucij, da investirajo velike vsote izposojenega denarja. Zavarovanja za
ta sredstva so navadno v obliki finančnih sredstev, ki še zdaleč nimajo neke
"trdne" vrednosti. Odvisnost vrednosti zavarovanja od cene finančnih
sredstev so jedro kreditne krize. Na preprostem modelu agenta, smo
preučevali "ekologijo" finančnih akterjev, kot so neinformirani kupci, dobro
obveščeni skladi, banke in vlagatelji v  zavarovane sklade. Predstavljeni
model omogoča prepoznavanje učinkov finančnih vzvodov na stabilnost
finančnega sistema. Sedaj lahko razumemo, kako manjše naključne fluktuacije
lahko sprožijo finančno krizo, ki sčasoma vodi do razpada celotnega sistema.
Glavno sporočilo tega predavanja je, da se lahko novi načini pri spremljanju
izbranih finančnih kazalnikov uporabijo za napovedovanje verjetnosti za
razvoj krize in zloma trgov.

Predavanje bo v angleškem jeziku.

Lepo vabljeni!

***

We would like to invite you to 4st lecture of the "Kolokvij na IJS" in the
school year 2009/10. The lecture will be held on Wednesday, November 11,
2009, at 1 pm at JSI main lecture hall, Jamova 39, Ljubljana. The abstract
of the lecture can be found on website:
<http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev>
http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev, the previous recorded lectures
can be found on website:  <http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs>
http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs. 

********************************************



Prof. Dr. Stefan Thurner, 

Complex Systems Research Group, Medical University of Vienna, Austria and

Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

 

Anatomy of financial crisis

 

Much of the recent financial crisis originates from the common practice of
financial firms of making investments with large sums of borrowed money
(leverage). The collateral for these borrowed funds is usually put up in the
form of financial assets, which are far from being 'solid' values. The
dependence of the value of collateral on asset prices is often the heart of
a credit crisis. In a simple agent based model we study an 'ecology' of
financial players such as un-informed noise traders, informed funds, banks,
and investors to hedge funds.  This model economy allows to identify the
effects of leverage on the stability of the financial system. It becomes
possible to understand how minor random fluctuations can trigger a financial
crisis, eventually leading to the collapse of the entire system. The main
message is that novel means of monitoring of a specific collection of
financial indicators could be used to foresee the likelihood for the
development of crisis and meltdown.

 

We look forward to meeting you at the "Kolokvij na IJS"!

 

 

 

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