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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><a name="_Hlk50455726"></a><a name="_Hlk41995074"></a><a name="_Hlk41470923"></a><a name="_Hlk20313133"><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Vabimo vas na 6. predavanje iz sklopa "Kolokviji na IJS" v letu 2020/21, ki bo <strong><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'>v sredo, 12. maja 2021, ob 13. uri. </span></strong><b>Predavanje bo v spletnem konferenčnem sistemu Zoom in mu lahko prisostvujete tako, da v brskalnik prenesete naslov </b></span></span></span></span></a><a href="https://uni-lj-si.zoom.us/j/98099345188?pwd=c1M0dHdnNHVDVFc2aC90RktCUHJKUT09"><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>https://uni-lj-si.zoom.us/j/98099345188?pwd=c1M0dHdnNHVDVFc2aC90RktCUHJKUT09</span></b></span></span></span></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'></span></span></span></span></a><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><b><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>; identifikacijska številka sestanka je 980 9934 5188, geslo pa 876849.</span></b></span></span></span></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Predavanje lahko spremljate tudi na TV IJS kanalu na spletnem naslovu </span></span></span></span></span><a href="http://tv.ijs.si"><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>tv.ijs.si</span></span></span></span></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'></span></span></span></span></a><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>.</span></span></span></span></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span lang=SL style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-fareast-language:SL'><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;font-weight:normal'> </span></strong><strong><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;font-weight:normal'><o:p></o:p></span></strong></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Napovednik predavanja najdete tudi na naslovu </span></span></span></span></span><a href="http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev"><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev</span></span></span></span></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'></span></span></span></span></a><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>, posnetke preteklih predavanj<span style='color:blue'> </span>pa na </span></span></span></span></span><a href="http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs"><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs</span></span></span></span></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'></span></span></span></span></a><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>. </span></span></span></span></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span lang=SL style='mso-fareast-language:SL'><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~</span></span></span></span></span><a name="_Hlk57188111"></a><a name="_Hlk57031912"></a><a name="_Hlk57187882"><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57031912'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57188111'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></a></p><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57187882'></span><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57031912'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57188111'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><a name="_Hlk57187910"><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'>dr. Matjaž Leskovar<o:p></o:p></span></b></a></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57031912'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57188111'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57187910'><i><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'>Institut Jožef Stefan, Ljubljana<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57187910'></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57031912'></span><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57188111'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><i><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57188111'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1C1E29'>Modeliranje epidemije COVID-19 v Sloveniji</span></b></span></span></span></span></span><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57188111'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><b><span lang=SL style='font-size:14.0pt;color:#1C1E29'><o:p></o:p></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57188111'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57188111'></span><p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><a name="_Hlk57031873"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>V uvodu bomo orisali dinamiko in pomembnejše negotovosti širjenja in obvladovanja epidemije. Nato bomo predstavili epidemiološki model, ki ga razvijamo v Odseku za reaktorsko tehniko Instituta »Jožef Stefan« in s katerim pripravljamo vsakodnevne analize in prognoze razvoja epidemije COVID-19 v Sloveniji. Model sodi v družino nadgrajenih SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) modelov in dosledno sledi načelu Occamovega rezila. Uglašen je z javno dostopnimi podatki, upošteva vpliv prekuževanja in cepljenja po starostnih skupinah ter sklopljeno obravnava širjenje več različic virusa. Predstavili bomo tudi nekaj možnosti za dnevno ocenjevanje reprodukcijskega števila okuževanja <i>R</i>. Na podlagi odličnega ujemanja modela in podatkov bomo komentirali razvoj epidemije v preteklosti ter podali nekaj verjetnih projekcij za prihodnje tedne.<o:p></o:p></span></a></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57031873'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57031873'><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Predavanje bo v slovnščini.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></span></span></p><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk57031873'></span><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41995074'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk41470923'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk20313133'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'>Lepo vabljeni!</span></strong></span></span></span><strong><span style='font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p></o:p></span></strong></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p> </o:p></span></strong></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p> </o:p></span></strong></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p> </o:p></span></strong></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p> </o:p></span></strong></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p> </o:p></span></strong></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p> </o:p></span></strong></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'><strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:red'><o:p> </o:p></span></strong></span></p><span style='mso-bookmark:_Hlk50455726'></span><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p></div></body></html>