OPOMNIK: IJS KOLOKVIJ, Sreda, 06. 12. 2017; ob 13. uri; prof. dr. Egon Zakrajšek

Tue Dec 5 11:00:16 CET 2017

Vabimo vas na 3. predavanje iz sklopa "Kolokviji na IJS" v letu 2016/17, ki bo v sredo, 06. decembra 2017, ob 13. uri v Veliki predavalnici Instituta »Jožef Stefan«  na Jamovi cesti 39 v Ljubljani. Napovednik predavanja najdete tudi na naslovu http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev, posnetke preteklih predavanj pa na http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs. 

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prof. dr. Egon Zakrajšek

Division of Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, ZDA

Dinamika inflacije in gibanje cen na trgih: podatki in teorija

Kaj pojasni odpornost proti inflaciji ob resni in dolgotrajni ekonomski stagnaciji? To vprašanje je v ospredje raziskav in razprav o gospodarski politiki potisnilo presenetljivo obnašanje inflacije v ZDA in v drugih razvitih gospodarstvih med globalno finančno krizo in po njej. Z novim sklopom podatkov, ki združuje raven cen dobrin, iz katere dobimo indeks proizvodnih cen, z izkazom uspeha respondentov, pokažemo, da so podjetja, katerih poslovanje so omejevale težave z likvidnostjo, dvignila cene v letu 2008, tista, ki niso imela težav z likvidnostjo, pa so cene znižala. Poleg tega podatki kažejo, da je odziv inflacije v posameznih industrijskih panogah, kakor ga razberemo iz tega indeksa, na spremembe agregatnih finančnih okoliščin močno odvisen od možnosti dostopa do zunanjega financiranja izven panoge: v tistih panogah, kjer se podjetja srečujejo z veliko verjetnostjo finančnih omejitev, je inflacija neodvisna od sprememb okoliščin, v onih, kjer je teh omejitev malo, pa se je nasprotno inflacija precej zniža ob zaostrenih pogojih. Da bi pojasnili te empirične ugotovitve, smo razvili splošni dinamični stohastični ravnovesni model, v katerem so podjetja  izpostavljena finančnim trenjem ob postavljanju cen na različnih trgih. Finančna izkrivljanja mamijo podjetja, da dvignejo cene v odziv na neugodne finančne šoke in na šoke povpraševanja. Ta reakcija odraža odločitev podjetij, da ohranijo notranjo likvidnost in se izognejo izrabi zunanjega financiranja. Ta faktorja ojačita aciklično obnašanje marž in blažita odziv inflacije na fluktuacije proizvodnje. Z razširitvijo modela na odprta gospodarstva raziščemo tudi posledice ustvarjanja monetarne unije držav z različnimi stopnjami finančnega neravnovesja, ki  vpliva na cenovno politiko podjetij, ko se ta odzivajo na razmere  na trgih. Podjetja v finančno šibkih državah v odzivu na finančni šok vzdržujejo finančne tokove z višanjem marž, podjetja v finančno močnih državah pa marže znižajo ter s tem spodkopljejo svoje finančno podhranjene tekmece in zvečajo svoj tržni  delež. Če obe območji doživljata različne šoke, skupna monetarna politika vodi k znatno večji makroekonomski nepredvidljivosti v finančno šibkejših državah v primerjavi z gibljivim tečajnim režimom; to nato privede do izgube blagostanja v uniji kot celoti, pri čemer breme v celoti nosijo finančno šibke države.

Predavanje bo v angleščini.

Lepo vabljeni!

We invite you to the 3rd Institute colloquium in the academic year 2016/17. The colloquium will be held on Wednesday December 06, 2017 at 1 PM in the main Institute lecture hall, Jamova 39, Ljubljana. To read the abstract click  http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev. Past colloquia are posted on  http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs.

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prof. dr. Egon Zakrajšek

Division of Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, USA

Inflation Dynamics and Customer Markets: Evidence and Theory

What accounts for the resilience for inflation in the face of substantial and long-lasting economic slack?  This question has been thrust to the forefront of academic research and policy debate by the surprising behavior of inflation—in the United States in other advanced foreign economies—during the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath.  Using a novel dataset, which merges good-level prices underlying the U.S. producer price index (PPI) with the respondents' balance sheets, we show that liquidity constrained firms increased prices in 2008, while their unconstrained counterparts cut prices.  More generally, we document that the response of industry-specific U.S. PPI inflation to changes in aggregate financial conditions depends importantly on differences in the ease of access to external finance across industries: In industries in which firms face a high likelihood of financial constraints, inflation is insensitive to changes in financial conditions; in industries where firms have a relatively unfettered access to external finance, by contrast, inflation declines significantly in response to a tightening of financial conditions.  To rationalize these empirical findings, we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which firms face financial frictions while setting prices in customer markets. Financial distortions create an incentive for firms to raise prices in response to adverse financial or demand shocks. This reaction reflects the firms' decisions to preserve internal liquidity and avoid accessing external finance, factors that strengthen the countercyclical behavior of markups and attenuate the response of inflation to fluctuations in output.  By extending the model to an open-economy setting, we also analyze the economic consequences of forming a monetary union among countries with varying degrees of financial distortions, which interact with firms' pricing decisions because of customer-market considerations. In response to a financial shock, firms in financially weak countries (the periphery) maintain cashflows by raising markups, while firms in financially strong countries (the core) reduce markups, undercutting their financially constrained competitors to gain market share. When the two regions are experiencing different shocks, common monetary policy results in a substantially higher macroeconomic volatility in the periphery, compared with a floating exchange rate regime; this translates into a welfare loss for the union as a whole, with the loss borne entirely by the periphery.

Cordially invited!

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