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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=SL link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal>Vabimo vas na 18. predavanje iz sklopa "Kolokviji na IJS" v letu 2013/14, ki bo <b><span style='color:red'>v sredo, 23. aprila 2014, ob 13. uri </span></b><span style='color:red'>v Veliki predavalnici Instituta »Jožef Stefan«</span> na Jamovi cesti 39 v Ljubljani. Napovednik predavanja najdete tudi na naslovu <a href="http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev">http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev</a>, posnetke preteklih predavanj<span style='color:blue'> </span>pa na <a href="http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs">http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs</a>. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'>mag. Velimir Bole<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><i><span style='mso-fareast-language:ZH-CN'>Ekonomski inštitut Pravne fakultete<o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><b><span style='font-size:14.0pt'>Sedlasta točka in gospodarsko nazadovanje v času krize<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt;text-align:justify'>Predavanje se ukvarja z gospodarskim dogajanjem od 2005 do 2013, ko je gospodarstvo najprej hitro naraščalo in se močno pregrevalo in nato v 2009 padlo v globoko recesijo oziroma dolgotrajno stagnacijo. Nadrobljena je empirična evidenca, ki kaže, da je sprememba verjetnosti režima delovanja gospodarskega mehanizma povzročila, da se je običajen, sicer opazno velik in pričakovan nihaj gospodarske aktivnosti navzdol prelevil v »stoletno« recesijo z velikimi narodnogospodarskimi in socialnimi oportunitetnimi stroški. Zaradi posameznih potez ekonomske politike se je (aposteriorna) verjetnost »slabega ravnotežja« nenadoma močno spremenila (povečala) glede na (apriorno) verjetnost pred krizo, ko ustrezne poteze zelo dolgo niti teoretično niso bile na repertoarju ekonomske politike. Prehod v »slabo ravnotežje« je dodatno poslabšal gospodarske dosežke ekonomskih enot tudi zaradi zmanjšanja informacije (namreč, njene irelevantnosti v novem režimu), torej povečane variabilnosti pogojnih pričakovanj (negotovosti) ekonomskih enot. Ilustrirane so posledice, ki so jih povzročile poteze centralnih bank FED in ECB (Lehman in »too big to fail«, »lender of last resort« in državni papirji evrske periferije) in še zlasti poteze domače ekonomske politike (referendumski padec pokojninske reforme in solventnost države, ZUJF in stabiliziranje državne blagajne, »bail-in« in stroški bank). Vračanje v »dobro« ravnotežje bo počasno, saj je kumuliranje informacije (empiričnih izkušenj) in ustrezno stabiliziranje pogojnih pričakovanj ekonomskih enot predpogoj za spreminjanje (verjetnosti) režima delovanja gospodarskega mehanizma. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt;text-align:justify'>Predavanje bo v slovenščini.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><b><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:red'>Lepo vabljeni!</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>