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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Vabim vas na 4. predavanje iz sklopa "Kolokviji na IJS" v
letu 2009/10, ki bo <strong><b><font color=red face="Times New Roman"><span
style='color:red'>v sredo, 11. novembra 2009, ob 13. uri </span></font></b></strong><font
color=red><span style='color:red'>v Veliki predavalnici Instituta »Jožef
Stefan«</span></font> na Jamovi cesti 39 v Ljubljani. Napovednik
predavanja najdete tudi na naslovu <a
href="http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev">http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev</a>,
posnetke preteklih predavanj<font color=blue><span style='color:blue'> </span></font>pa
na <a href="http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs">http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs</a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Prof. Dr. Stefan Thurner<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-style:italic'>Complex Systems Research Group,
Medical University of Vienna, Wahringer Gurtel 18-20, A 1090 Vienna, Austria in<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-style:italic'>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New
Mexico, USA<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-style:italic'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=4 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Anatomija finančne krize<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=4 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-weight:bold'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Glavnina sedanje finančne krize izvira iz vsakodnevne prakse finančnih
institucij, da investirajo velike vsote izposojenega denarja. Zavarovanja za ta
sredstva so navadno v obliki finančnih sredstev, ki še zdaleč nimajo neke
"trdne" vrednosti. Odvisnost vrednosti zavarovanja od cene finančnih
sredstev so jedro kreditne krize. Na preprostem modelu agenta, smo preučevali
"ekologijo" finančnih akterjev, kot so neinformirani kupci, dobro
obveščeni skladi, banke in vlagatelji v zavarovane sklade. Predstavljeni
model omogoča prepoznavanje učinkov finančnih vzvodov na stabilnost finančnega
sistema. Sedaj lahko razumemo, kako manjše naključne fluktuacije lahko sprožijo
finančno krizo, ki sčasoma vodi do razpada celotnega sistema. Glavno sporočilo
tega predavanja je, da se lahko novi načini pri spremljanju izbranih finančnih
kazalnikov uporabijo za napovedovanje verjetnosti za razvoj krize in zloma
trgov.<font color=navy><span style='color:navy'><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Predavanje bo v angleškem jeziku.<font color=navy><span
style='color:navy'><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><strong><b><font
size=3 color=red face=Calibri><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Calibri;
color:red'>Lepo vabljeni!<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></strong></p>
<p class=MsoNormal align=center style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:
12.0pt;text-align:center'><strong><b><font size=6 face=Calibri><span
style='font-size:24.0pt;font-family:Calibri'>***<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></strong></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><font
size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'>We
would like to invite you to 4<sup>th</sup> lecture of the "Kolokvij na
IJS" in the school year 2009/10. The lecture will be held <b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>on Wednesday, November 11, 2009, at 1 pm</span></b> at
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>JSI main lecture hall</span></b>, Jamova 39, <st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Ljubljana</st1:City></st1:place>. The abstract of
the lecture can be found on website: </span></font><font size=2><span
lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt'><a
href="http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev"><font size=3><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>http://www.ijs.si/ijsw/Koledar_prireditev</span></font></a></span></font><span
lang=EN-US>, the previous recorded lectures can be found on website: </span><font
size=2><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt'><a
href="http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs"><font size=3><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>http://videolectures.net/kolokviji_ijs</span></font></a></span></font><span
lang=EN-US>.</span><font size=2><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt'> </span></font><span
lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'><font
size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'>********************************************<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Prof. Dr. Stefan Thurner, <o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-style:italic'>Complex Systems Research Group,
Medical University of Vienna, Austria and<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-style:italic'>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New
Mexico, USA<o:p></o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><i><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;font-style:italic'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></i></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=5 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:16.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Anatomy of financial crisis<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph'><font
size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='text-align:justify;text-justify:inter-ideograph'><font
size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:12.0pt'>Much of
the recent financial crisis originates from the common practice of financial
firms of making investments with large sums of borrowed money (leverage). The
collateral for these borrowed funds is usually put up in the form of financial
assets, which are far from being ’solid’ values. The dependence of
the value of collateral on asset prices is often the heart of a credit crisis.
In a simple agent based model we study an ’ecology’ of financial
players such as un-informed noise traders, informed funds, banks, and investors
to hedge funds. This model economy allows to identify the effects of
leverage on the stability of the financial system. It becomes possible to
understand how minor random fluctuations can trigger a financial crisis,
eventually leading to the collapse of the entire system. The main message is
that novel means of monitoring of a specific collection of financial indicators
could be used to foresee the likelihood for the development of crisis and
meltdown.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=4 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-weight:bold'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=4 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:14.0pt;font-weight:bold'>We look forward to meeting you at the
“Kolokvij na IJS”!<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span lang=EN-US
style='font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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